In 2010, I predicted the triumph of The Hurt Locker in the Academy Awards. In 2011 and 2012, I predicted the winnings of The King’s Speech and The Artist. Last year, I called correctly for Argo. In between, I predicted awards and victories for soccer teams, directors, actors, actresses, screenwriters and politicians.
Predicting the Oscars is not about my opinion about movies. It is about my opinion about the opinion of the average member of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Science, the people who vote on the Oscars. Reading other people’s mind is difficult, but fun. It can also be a source of advantage, something that my research explores. But enough about theory — let’s spread our wings!
So after I polished my crystal ball, consulted the stars (and the moon), rolled a few dices, flipped a few coins, and carefully analyzed all available information, I predict:
- Best Picture – Birdman (even if Boyhood is a serious contender)
- Director – Alejandro González Iñárritu (Birdman), although I would not be surprised if Richard Linklater (Boyhood) wins. Unlike last year, I do not foresee a split between Best Picture and Best Director.
- Actor in Leading Role – Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
- Actress in Leading Role – Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
- Actor in Supporting Role – J K Simmons (Whiplash)
- Actress in Supporting Role – Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
- Best Adapted Screenplay – The Imitation Game
- Best Original Screenplay –The Grand Budapest Hotel (even if Birdman is deserving, too)
- Original Song – Glory (Selma), performed by John Legend
- Documentary Feature – Citizenfour
These are my predictions. If you think otherwise, speak now or forever hold your peace…