After predicting – against many pundits – the triumph of The Hurt Locker in 2010, and after predicting – before the first game was even played – Spain’s victory in the World Cup, I’m ready for the Oscars again. Last year’s success was 100%, so regression to the mean is possible (even Jeremy Lin isn’t immune).
Why predicting the Oscars is so much fun? Because it’s all about predicting human behavior. So after polishing my crystal ball, consulting the stars (and the moon), interviewing insiders, observing all eight tentacles of my proverbial octopus, and careful analysis of all available information, I predict:
Best Picture – The Artist
Directing – Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist
Actress in Supporting Role – Octavia Spencer for The Help
These are my predictions. If you think otherwise, speak now or forever hold your peace…