Academy Award Predictions are Coming…

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After predicting – against many pundits – the triumph of The Hurt Locker in 2010, and after predicting – before the first game was even played – Spain’s victory in the World Cup, I’m ready for the Oscars again.

Why predicting the Oscars is so much fun? Predicting the World Cup winner is about assessing each team’s chances. Predicting the Academy Awards is about assessing each picture’s chances in the eyes of the voters: the members of Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Rather than asking “which picture I like” or “which picture should win”, I ask “which picture are Academy members likely to vote for?” Economist John Maynard Keynes has written that to succeed in the stock market an investor ought to figure out “what average opinion believes average opinion to be” (here’s why), and the Oscars are like that.

My success in discovering the Academy members’ was perfect last year – 100% success. I can’t promise the same this year, but I will put my money where my mouth is… Anyone for betting?

Academy Award predictions are coming on Sunday, February 26.


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