I predicted the triumph of The Hurt Locker in the 2010 Academy Awards, The King’s Speech in 2011, and The Artist last year. In between, I predicted awards and victories for soccer teams, directors, actors, actresses, screenwriters and politicians.
Predicting the Oscars is not about my opinion about movies. It’s about my opinion about the opinion of the average Academy member about movies. Reading other people is so much more challenging, but so much fun!
My perfect success rate dipped slightly last year (although I did much better than Nate Silver). Was it regression to the mean? We’ll find out soon.
So after I polished my crystal ball, consulted the stars (and the moon), interviewed insiders, rolled a few dices, flipped a few coins, and carefully analyzed all available information, I predict:
- Best Picture – Argo. Yes, I predict a split between Best Picture and Best Director for the first time in 24 years
- Director – Steven Spielberg (Lincoln), even if Ang Lee (Life of Pi) is a serious contender
- Actor in Leading Role – Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln, a deserving award for one of our best actors, won already won for My Left Foot (1989) and There Will Be Blood (2007)
- Actress in Leading Role – Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook. Even if Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), the oldest nominated actress ever, is equally deserving and may surprise.
- Actor in Supporting Role – To preserve interpersonal harmony, I refrain from making a prediction this year. I’ll just say that Tommy Lee Jones and Christoph Waltz are equally deserving.
- Actress in Supporting Role – Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables) is my best bet
- Writing (Adapted Screenplay) – Argo
- Best Original Screenplay – Django Unchained, although Zero Dark Thirty is a contender.
And this year I venture farther, and also predict for:
- Foreign Language Film – Amour, directed by Michael Haneke
- Original Song – “Skyfall“, performed by Adele
- Documentary Feature – Searching for Sugar Man
- Editing – Argo
- Costume Design – Anna Karenina
- Cinematography – Life of Pi
- Original Score – Life of Pi
- Special Effects – Life of Pi
These are my predictions. If you think otherwise, speak now or forever hold your peace…