Oscar Predictions: Fly Like a Bird

February 22, 2015

Posted by in Blog, Research with no comments

In 2010, I predicted the triumph of The Hurt Locker in the Academy Awards. In 2011 and 2012, I predicted the winnings of The King’s Speech and The Artist. Last year, I called correctly for Argo. In between, I predicted awards and victories for soccer teams, directors, actors, actresses, screenwriters and politicians.

Predicting the Oscars is not about my opinion about movies. It is about my opinion about the opinion of the average member of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Science, the people who vote on the Oscars. Reading other people’s mind is difficult, but fun. It can also be a source of advantage, something that my research explores. But enough about theory — let’s spread our wings!

So after I polished my crystal ball, consulted the stars (and the moon), rolled a few dices, flipped a few coins, and carefully analyzed all available information, I predict:

  • Best Picture – Birdman (even if Boyhood is a serious contender)
  • Director – Alejandro González Iñárritu (Birdman), although I would not be surprised if Richard Linklater (Boyhood) wins. Unlike last year, I do not foresee a split between Best Picture and Best Director.
  • Actor in Leading Role – Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
  • Actress in Leading Role – Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
  • Actor in Supporting Role – J K Simmons (Whiplash)
  • Actress in Supporting Role – Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
  • Best Adapted Screenplay – The Imitation Game
  • Best Original Screenplay –The Grand Budapest Hotel (even if Birdman is deserving, too)
  • Original Song – Glory (Selma), performed by John Legend
  • Documentary Feature – Citizenfour

These are my predictions. If you think otherwise, speak now or forever hold your peace…

November 20, 2014

Posted by in Research with no comments

Trained at Wharton, Prof. Levine studies how people behave and how they impact others, organizations and markets. His research spans disciplines: He studied how knowledge sharing affects performance, how open collaboration facilitates innovation, and how ethnic diversity deflates price bubbles. He currently studies how Pay It Forward creates surprising acts of kindness, how “mind reading” enhances performance, and how isolation can bring success. His research has been cited in business, sociology, psychology, economics, law, and computer science. It has been reported by the New York Times, Reuters, Forbes, Bloomberg, Huffington Post, The Globe and Mail, New YorkMagazine, Business Insider, South China Morning Post, The Australian Financial Review and others. He taught global strategic management, organizational theory, entrepreneurship and innovation to audiences in the US, Europe and Asia. Prof. Levine is a member of the AoM, ASA, SPSP, AEA, and INGroup. His research won grants from and conducted at MIT, Columbia, Penn, and the University of Texas at Dallas

Stock Bubbles are Deflated by Ethnic Diversity

November 17, 2014

Posted by in Blog, Research with no comments

In diverse company, people think more deeply, make better decisions, study finds

From The Great Depression through the dot-com boom of the 1990s to the recent financial crisis, stock market bubbles are a constant malaise. Even as bubbles devastate individuals and nations, preventing them has been difficult because their sources remain opaque.

A new study proposes a cause: Bubbles happen when people mindlessly trust the behavior of others, and they do so much more often when surrounded by ethnic peers. In an article published today in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, researchers show that markets of ethnically diverse traders are much less likely to suffer bubbles. These findings could have a lasting impact on economics — and ethnic diversity.

“Ethnic diversity can bring a variety of perspectives, but is valuable also because it changes how people think, feel and behave.” says Dr. Sheen S. Levine of Columbia University who formed the research team of sociologists, economists, psychologists and business school professors.

Dr. David Stark, a Columbia sociologist and a member of the research team, says that “when surrounded by others who are ethnically the same, you behave differently – more likely to accept things at face value, less likely to scrutinize and think for yourself.”

Dr. Evan Apfelbaum, a social psychologist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a member of the research team, adds, “With ethnic homogeneity, we place overdue confidence in others, just because they appear superficially similar to us.”

To study how ethnic diversity affects price bubbles, Dr. Levine and his collaborators constructed experimental markets in Southeast Asia and North America. It was a laboratory for bubbles: “We could pinpoint the true value of a stock, and compare these true values with market prices,” explains Dr. Mark Bernard, an economist at Goethe University in Frankfurt and a member of the research team. “So we could identify bubbles as soon as they appeared and measure their exact magnitude.”

The researchers randomly assigned participants, all versed in finance, to ethnically homogeneous or diverse markets, letting them trade stocks to earn cash. There were no initial differences between traders in homogenous and diverse markets. But when trading begun, a striking difference between the markets emerged.

Homogenous markets were much more likely to bubble. In them, overpricing was higher as traders were more likely to accept speculative prices. Their pricing errors were more correlated than in diverse markets. And when bubbles burst, homogenous markets crashed more severely. “Bubbles have been long ascribed to ‘herd behavior,’ ‘animal spirits’ and ‘thought viruses.’ but hard evidence has been scarce until now,” notes Dr. Edward J. Zajac, a Northwestern University professor and another researcher on the study. Across markets and locations, market prices fit true values 58 percent better in diverse markets.

“Our first results came from research sites in Southeast Asia, involving Chinese, Indians, and Malay traders,” says Dr. Valerie Bartelt, a professor at Texas A&M-Kingsville and a research team member. “We wanted to verify that the results hold in a different culture.” The researchers proceeded to replicate the study in the United States with White, African-American and Latino traders. The findings were similar to those from Southeast Asia, despite sizeable differences in culture and ethnic composition. This suggests a universal pattern.

What is the practical significance of the findings? A recent study by CUNY’s Center for Urban Research found that more than half of Wall Street’s workforce was made up of white men, who earned more than twice as much as women and minorities. In the financial center of London, diversity may be even less, suggest data from Astbury Marsden, a recruiting firm.

“Our findings are another compelling reason to diversify markets, teams, boards, and organizations,” concludes Dr. Levine.

November 17, 2014

Posted by in Research with no comments

Trained at Wharton, Prof. Levine studies how people behave and how they impact others, organizations and markets. His research spans disciplines: He studiedhow knowledge sharing affects performance, how open collaborationfacilitates innovation, and how ethnic diversity deflates price bubbles.He currently studies how Pay It Forward creates surprising acts of kindness, how “mind reading” enhances performance, and how isolation can bring breakthrough ideas. His research has been cited by scholars in business, sociology, psychology, economics and law. It has also been relied upon in computer science, physics and mathematics. He taught business strategy, global strategic management, organizational theory, entrepreneurship and innovation to audiences in the US, Europe and Asia. Prof. Levine is a member of the AoM, ASA, SPSP, AEA, and INGroup. His research won grants from and conducted at MIT, Columbia, Penn, and the University of Texas at Dallas

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